Viruses mutate and evolve over time, sometimes leading to the rise of a new variant. This is true of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
By mid-September this year, the Delta variant was the main COVID variant in the United States, accounting for more than 99% of cases. On November 30th, the United States identified another variant of concern, the Omicron variant. First identified by South African scientists in late November, the Omicron variant has a new combination of about fifty mutations. The first Omicron case was confirmed in the United States on December 1st. Since then, the variant has spread to a majority of U.S. states, including Pennsylvania.
Researchers expect Omicron to become the dominant variant in many countries by the end of 2021. In response to the increasing threat, President Biden has tightened restrictions for international travelers in an attempt to stop the spread of the variant in the United States. However, on December 10th, the CDC reported on the first 43 cases in the U.S., the majority of which were not among international travelers. 34 of those infected were fully vaccinated, 14 had received the booster dose, and six had been previously infected. Fortunately, none of the Americans infected died and only one person required hospitalization.
Scientists have begun analyzing the Omicron variant for changes in transmissibility, the severity of symptoms, and vaccine efficacy. Researchers will need a few weeks to fully understand its effects, although there have been a few early indications of Omicron’s abilities. The variant has more than thirty mutations to the spike protein, some of which have been shown in other variants to speed up transmission and weaken immune responses. Early studies have shown that Omicron cases are doubling faster than Delta, at a rate of every two to three days. This increased transmissibility may be the result of an increased number of people who were sick with COVID in the past being reinfected with the virus. British and South African researchers have found that Omicron increases the risk of reinfection by three to five times. Despite the increased transmission of the variant, early Omicron cases have suggested that the variant may cause milder symptoms. However, in both studies on transmissibility and symptoms, sample sizes have been small or included a disproportionate amount of younger people, who are generally less susceptible to severe disease. Scientists are still unsure if the data we have now will be illustrative of the Omicron variant in the long run.
The effectiveness of vaccines is also a source of concern. So far, early studies have shown that receiving two doses of the vaccine is less effective against Omicron than other versions of the virus, but that a third booster dose increases vaccination’s effectiveness. In lab experiments, Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine antibodies were less successful at stopping Omicron than previous variants. However, the experiments also found that the increased antibodies produced by the third booster increased success. An early analysis of vaccine efficacy in the UK showed that a third dose increases protection to around 75%. Scientists are optimistic that even if susceptibility to being infected increases, the vaccine will continue to reduce the chance of severe illness.
Because of the uncertainties surrounding the Omicron variant, it is best to prepare for the worst. The CDC recommends that anyone five years and older get fully vaccinated and that anyone 16 years and older get a booster shot at least two to six months (depending on the type of vaccine) after their vaccination. All East students are eligible to get vaccinated and many are eligible for a booster shot. You can find out where to get yours at https://www.vaccines.gov/search/. Experts also recommend that everyone, regardless of vaccination status, wear masks in public indoor settings in areas of substantial community transmission. By taking these steps, we can prevent the potential negative effects of an Omicron variant surge in the U.S.
To learn more about the Omicron variant, you can visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html
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