The midterms were supposed to be a “Red Wave.”
Usually, during elections, the current President’s party loses seats and control of some or all of Congress. One of the few times this didn’t happen was after 9/11 when President Bush’s party (the Republicans) gained two Senate seats and only lost one House seat. Due to the tragedy, his party ended up retaining control of both houses of Congress. This midterm election, similar to Bush’s, ended up going against the usual switching of parties in Congress.
State Governors and Legislatures
Democrats won the Massachusetts governorship for the first time in eight years and achieved a trifecta- when one party controls both houses (Senate/House) legislatures and the executive (governor/president). Wes More - the third black governor ever to be elected - has also won the Maryland governorship. The Nevada governorship went red with Republican Joe Lombardo winning 48.8% of the vote. In Vermont, Democrats won a supermajority in both legislative chambers allowing them to override the Republican governor's veto.
Josh Shapiro - the Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania Governorship - won by an unexpectedly large margin. He outperformed both Joe Biden in 2020 and John Fetterman (Democrat candidate for the US Senate).
Additionally, Democrats declared control of the PA State House on November 15th with Rep. Joanna McClinton becoming the first black speaker of the PA House.
Republicans (and the Associated Press) disagree though, with PA House GOP spokesman Jason Gottesman calling the claims of Democrat victory “premature” and pledging that Republicans will continue to “closely monitor a number of races where the votes are still being counted.” The AP hasn’t yet called all these races and litigation will almost certainly ensure.
Incumbent Republican governors in Texas and Florida defeated Democrats, with Greg Abbott of Texas winning 54.8% of the vote and defeating longtime challenger Beto O’Rourke. Additionally Ron Desantis of Florida- who will likely directly challenge Trump and seek the Republican nomination for President in 2024 -beat Democrat Charlie Crist and won 59.4% of the vote.
Of state legislators, rising star Gretchen Whitmer (the governor of Michigan) won reelection and was given a trifecta by voters when both the State Senate and State House flipped from red to blue for the first time in four decades. Additionally, Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Republican candidate Kari Lake for the Arizona governorship, turning the previously Republican trifecta into a divided governorship. The key race in New Hampshire resulted in a Republican trifecta and the race in Alaska ended with another divided legislature.
In summary… Democrats won four trifectas (Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Michigan) and lost one (Nevada) for a net gain of three. Republicans lost control of Arizona but otherwise held their ground. Regardless of state legislatures, the majority of Americans will be “living in states where Democrats are governors” in 2023.
The Senate
The races for the US Senate were highly contentious this year, with all states that Democrats were up for reelection in having voted for Biden in 2020. In Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina, Republicans won with 50.5% and 50.6% of the vote in WI and NC and a surprisingly strong performance by JD Vance winning 53.3% of the vote in Ohio. In Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, Democrats maintained control of their Senate seats, and in PA John Fetterman narrowly defeated (51.1%) Mehmet Oz for outgoing Senator Pat Toomey’s (R-PA) seat. In Georgia, neither Republican Hershel Walker (48.5%), Democrat Rachel Warnock (49.4%), or Libertarian Chase Oliver (2.1%) won a majority (50% + 1) of the vote.
Georgia law requires that candidates win a majority in order to be elected. As such, there will be a “runoff” election on December 6th between the two top performing candidates. Warnock is projected to win, giving Democrats a 51 Senate majority.
There are 48 Democrats in the Senate, plus two independents who tend to vote Democrat. Depending on the results in Georgia there will either be 48-D plus 2-I plus the Vice President, or 49-D plus 2-I plus Vice President (for ties only).
The House
The final results in the House are still very uncertain, but Republicans have definitely won a majority (218 seats) and Democrats have lost it. Of the seven (as of writing) seats still uncalled, most lean Republican with CA-34 a safe Democrat seat since due to California’s new primary system both candidates are Democrats.
Rather than holding a Republican primary to choose the Republican candidate or a Democrat primary to choose the Democratic candidate, California holds a nonpartisan primary where the top two vote-getters move on to the general election. Similar to Georgia, but with a “pre-election” (primary) held ahead of time.
Incumbent Mary Peltola (D-AL) will likely win reelection in Alaska and Republicans will win most other seats. But all these races are extremely close and it’s difficult to predict. By the time of publishing the results will probably be clearer.*
The most significant change is not by how many seats Democrats have lost by or Republicans have won by, but how which party has the most total seats in the House and who is in the House leadership positions. We know that Democrats are in the minority and Republicans are in the majority.
Both parties in the House are holding leadership elections after this became clear.
Senate and House Leadership Elections
In the Senate, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was reelected as minority leader in a secret ballot election defeating Rick Scott (R-FL), his first challenger in 15 years. Scott only got 10 votes.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will continue to lead the Democratic majority.
The Speaker is the leader of the entire House and is (re)-elected by the entire House. Assuming the House doesn’t move to vacate the Speaker (which basically never happens) they serve the entire session (which lasts two years).
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) won the Republican nomination for speaker 188-31. He defeated the Freedom Caucus (far right caucus that battles the Republican establishment) endorsed candidate
Andy Briggs (R-AZ). Despite this win, far-right Republicans are threatening not to vote for McCarthy during the Speaker election (you need a majority to be Speaker). Moderate Republicans like Don Bacon (R-NE) are threatening to team up with Democrats to elect a moderate (Republican) Speaker.
Most of these threats will not actually happen and are mostly used to try and leverage concessions from McCarthy. Regardless of what happens, McCarthy has the slimmest of majorities and is going to find it extremely difficult to govern. Surprisingly, Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who typically falls on the far right end of the spectrum and has been a thorn in McCarthy’s side in the past, has strongly supported him. “If we don’t unify behind Kevin McCarthy, we’re opening up the door for the Democrats to recruit some of our Republicans,” she opined.
For the Democrats, long-time House Democrat leader, Nancy Pelosi, has announced that she is not seeking reelection for Democratic leadership. She will continue to serve in Congress, representing CA-12 (San Francisco) and advising the new leadership. Pelosi has served in Congress for over 35 years, led the House Democratic party for almost two decades, served as Speaker from 2007 - 2011, and again from 2019 - 2022. She was the first woman Speaker of the House. Hakeem Jeffries - current chair of the House Democrat Caucus - is the heir apparent and will likely lead the party in 2023. The current House Majority Leader, Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has announced that he will run for a leadership position in Congress.
*Republicans did win the house by gaining 8 seats. They now have a total of 220 seats.
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